E-commerce 2026: Trends, Categories and Figures of the Italian Market

2026 opens up a different possibility, characterised by strategic consolidation in a market that is now mature and populated by highly knowledgeable consumers. According to estimates, e-commerce turnover will exceed 65-70 billion euros, with forecast growth of between +6% and +8% per annum. With a total retail penetration exceeding 11%, the digital channel now represents the very infrastructure of commerce itself.

Tech and Green: The 4 Key Trends for 2026

Technology and sustainability are the keywords for those wishing to compete. In 2026, fundamental dynamics emerge that will distinguish market leaders:

1. Mobile Only as Standard Approximately 80% of retail visits come from smartphones. This dictates a shift from responsive adaptation to design natively created for thumb-scrolling. A fluid purchasing journey on a vertical screen becomes essential to prevent customer churn.

2. Hyper-personalisation with AI Artificial Intelligence is becoming an operational standard. 78% of Italian companies use it to predict consumer needs, recording an estimated 32% increase in conversions. Advanced sites anticipate user desires rather than simply reacting to clicks.

3. Social Commerce and Live Shopping Live Shopping is now a consolidated reality in Italy, driven by the debut of TikTok Shop in 2025. This purchasing method is on its way to becoming a public favourite, thanks to a format that combines the immediacy of entertainment with the speed of checkout, eliminating any distance between product discovery and transaction.

4. Sustainability and Re-commerce Generation Z is pushing towards ethical consumption models. Marketplaces are integrating "second-hand" options, and sustainability acts as a concrete driver of choice, moving beyond the phase of simple marketing claims.

The 4 Categories to Target for Online Sales in 2026

Although growth is evident across the board, 2026 sees a clear polarisation towards certain product categories. In particular:

• Food & Grocery: The sector confirms its dynamism with +7% growth, supported by efficient logistics and the consolidation of online grocery shopping as a recurring habit.

• Beauty & Pharma: A sector worth 36.6% of total purchases by volume. Sales here are driven by social proof and the digitalisation of products that once required physical testing.

• Electronics: Maintains leadership in terms of value, representing 43% of total online spending.

• Furniture (Home Living): Reaches an incidence of 20%, thanks in part to the adoption of AR (Augmented Reality) technologies that allow furniture to be visualised in the home before purchase.

Tailored Checkout: The Explosion of BNPL and "Where I Want It" Logistics

The purchasing experience depends on the quality of the final details, from payment flexibility to receiving convenience.

• The BNPL Boom: "Buy Now, Pay Later" will exceed 4 billion euros in transaction volume in Italy. This tool represents a fundamental lever for increasing the Average Order Value (AOV) and reducing cart abandonment, extending its usage well beyond the younger demographic.

• "On Demand" Logistics: Precision counts as much as speed. The consumer of 2026 wants to decide where and when to collect goods. The use of PUDO (Pick Up Drop Off points) and Lockers is growing exponentially to manage self-service collection and avoid waiting at home.

How to Manage Complexity in a Mature Market

In a context where margins are thinning and customers are raising the bar on expectations, operational efficiency becomes the only way to protect profitability. Selling in 2026 requires precise guarantees on three fronts:

• Impeccable Logistics: To satisfy a customer who, while prudent, will not tolerate poor service.

• Omnichannel Integration: Physical and digital must unite to intercept the consumer at any touchpoint.

• Precise Compliance: Fiscal and bureaucratic management (Merchant of Record) must be fluid to support the speed of business.

We at T-Data answer exactly this need. We free brands from operational complexity, ranging from logistics to customer care and marketplace management, allowing them to concentrate on creating value for an increasingly conscious consumer.

Sources: Food Affairs, Deutsche Bank / DB Magazine, Netcomm, Italia Economy, Shopify